Mardi | 2018-03-27 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Marine DE TALANCé This paper explores the relationship between compulsory education, educational attainment and fertility. More specifically, we focus on a law implemented in Indonesia that lengthened compulsory education by three years and we use the IFLS database. Empirically, we rely on a difference-in-differences model with a continuous treatment defined by the initial level of education in the individual’s region of birth. We find that the law increased junior secondary school […]

Mardi | 2018-03-20 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Defining retirement as a discontinuity in the labor supply of the agent, this paper resolves the retirement consumption puzzle in a very general model of intertemporal choice of consumption and savings of a fully rational, forward looking, agent. Building on a specific version of Bellman (1957) principle of optimality, it provides a very general and parsimonious formula for determining the optimal age of retirement taking into account the possible discontinuity of […]

Mardi | 2018-02-27 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Laura HERING – Julien GOURDON – Stéphanie MONJON – Sandra PONCET Compared to most countries, China’s value-added tax (VAT) system is not neutral and makes it less advantageous to export a product than to sell it domestically. However, the large and frequent changes to the VAT refunds which are offered to exporters have led China to be accused of providing its firms with an unfair advantage in global trade. We use […]

Mardi | 2018-02-20 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Marie-Pierre HORY – Grégory LEVIEUGE – Daria ONORI This paper aims at explaining why the public spending multiplier is generally low, even close to zero, in emerging economies (EMEs). We claim that this can be related to the foreign currency denominated debt borne by private agents. Indeed, according to a recent literature, the real exchange rate can depreciate following an increase in public spending. In this case, the debt burden denominated […]

Mercredi | 2018-02-15 Salle B103 – 12h00 Delchande DIBI Cette étude vise à déterminer la relation entre la politique d’ouverture commerciale et la croissance économique de 33 pays issus de 3 communautés régionales africaines à savoir l’UEMOA, la CEMAC et le COMESA sur la période 1990-2015. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons le test de causalité développé par Dumitrescu et Hurlin (2012) dans le cas d’un panel hétérogène. La croissance économique est mesurée par le logarithme du PIB par tête. Quant […]

Mardi | 2018-02-13 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Gerhard TOWENS – Pierre-Louis VéZINA We show that giant and unpredictable oil and gas discoveries in developing countries trigger FDI bonanzas. Across countries, we document a 58% increase in FDI in the 2 years following a giant discovery. This effect is driven by new projects in non-resource sectors such as manufacturing, retail, business services and construction. We illustrate this mechanism using Mozambique’s recent post-discovery FDI boom. We combine concurrent waves of […]

Mercredi | 2018-02-08 Salle B103 – 12h00 Sullivan HUE – Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU – Christophe HURLIN – Sessi TOKPAVI Decision trees and related ensemble methods like random forest are state-of-the-art tools in the eld of machine learning for predictive regression and classi cation. However, they lack interpretability and can be less relevant in credit scoring applications, where decision-makers and regulators need a transparent linear score function that usually corresponds to the link function in logistic regressions. In this paper, we propose […]

Mercredi | 2018-02-01 Salle B103 – 12h00 Tobignaré YABRE Ce papier propose une nouvelle explication de l’adoption de mesures de stabilisation budgétaire à travers l’expérience de 43 pays d’Afrique sub-saharienne sur la période 2000-2015. Nous procédons par identification des épisodes et des stratégies d’ajustement sur la base du déficit primaire ajusté des variations cycliques (CAPD). L’estimation d’un modèle logit et des analyses de robustesse permettent de dégager trois principales conclusions. D’abord, la probabilité d’adoption de mesures de stabilisation augmente en […]

Mardi | 2018-01-30 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Clément MATHONNAT – Benjamin WILLIAMS Whole arrays of recent empirical studies show that both banking crises and the increase in the size of the financial sector play a central and important role in the evolution of income inequalities over the last decades. To our knowledge, no study has so far sought to link these three elements with the aim to investigate the role of the size of the banking sector in […]

Mercredi | 2018-01-25 Salle B103 – 12h00 Yunzhi ZHANG – Camélia TURCU Does China’s foreign aid impact export?