Année : 2009

How to Evaluate and Early Warning System?

Mardi | 2009-12-08 Bertrand Candelon – Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU – Christophe HURLIN – Jaouad MADKOUR This paper proposes a new statistical framework inherited from the traditional credit-scoringliterature, to evaluate currency crises Early Warning System (EWS). Applied so as to assessthe predictive power of panel logit and Markov frameworks, it results that the panel logitis outperforming the Markov switching ones. Furthermore, the introduction of forward loo-king variables clearly improves the forecasting properties of the EWS. It thus con rms theadequacy of the […]

Estimating Nonlinearities in Spatial Auregressive Models

Mardi | 2009-12-01 Nicolas DEBARSY – Vincenzo VERARDI – Amine LAHIANI In spatial autoregressive models, the functional form of autocorrelationis assumed to be linear. In this paper, we propose a simple semiparametricprocedure, based on Yatchew’s (1997) partial linear least squares, that doesnot impose this restriction. Simple simulations show that this model outper-forms traditional SAR estimation when nonlinearities are present. We thenapply the methodology on real data to test for the spatial pattern of vot-ing for independent candidates in US presidential […]

What Gains from Liberalisation of Trade in Service: Lessons from Modelling and Political Economy

Mardi | 2009-11-24 Thierry MONTALIEU – Isabelle RABAUD – Thierry BAUDASSE Theoretically, welfare gains from liberalisation of trade in services arise from falling pricesand technology transfers from foreign firms. Empirically, substantial gains are only reachedwhen entry of foreign firms is widened. These results rest upon three strong assumptions.First, substitution elasticities need to be important, which is not the case empirically foraggregated service data. Second, information is required on the breakdown of the initial pricewedgebetween rent and inefficient technology. Third, wage […]

Untalented but Successful

Mardi | 2009-11-10 O. GERGAUD – Vincenzo VERARDI – Cyrille PIATECKI When studying the problem of the emergence of superstars, scholars face dif-…culties in measuring talent, obtaining con…dential data on earnings, and …ndingeconometric techniques that are robust to the presence of outliers (superstars).In this paper we use a quasi-experimental dataset from the Pokemon trading cardgame in which (i) there is no unidenti…able heterogeneity, (ii) rarity can be sepa-rated from talent and (iii) objective earnings are observable through transactionprices. Using semi-parametric […]

Labour Standards and Migration: do Labour Conditions Matter ?

Mardi | 2009-10-13 Rémi BAZILLIER – Yasser Moullan – Thierry BAUDASSE We study in this paper the interactions between migration rates and the level of labourstandards. We use an augmented version of the Grogger and Hanson (2008) model, addingthe level of working conditions into the specification. Our hypothesis is that the differentialof working conditions may be a complementary determinant of migration. In a first time, wetest the influence of labour standards in countries of origin using a database on emigrationrates […]