Année : 2018

L’instabilité politique et ses déterminants : un réexamen empirique

Mardi | 2018-12-18 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Hassen KOBBI – Comlanvi Jude EGGOH De nombreux pays subissent des crises politiques, parfois sévères avec des conséquences économiques dramatiques, sans qu’une analyse profonde des motifs de ces phénomènes d’instabilité politique ne soit réellement effectuée. Une meilleure connaissance des facteurs favorisant l’instabilité politique, permettra de mieux les prévenir, les contenir et de limiter les effets adverses. Le présent article s’inscrit dans cette perspective en revisitant les déterminants macroéconomiques et institutionnels de […]

A Meta-analysis of Systemic Risk Measures for gauging Financial Stability

Mercredi | 2018-12-06 Salle B103 – 12h30 Jean-Charles GARIBAL – Massimiliano CAPORIN – Michele COSTOLA – Bertrand MAILLET After the last major financial crisis of 2008, the financial literature has proposed several systemic risk measures as attempts for quantifying the magnitude of the financial system distress. In this article, we suggest the construction of an overall meta-index for the measurement of systemic risk based on a Sparse Principal Component Analysis of main systemic risk measures, which ultimately aims to provide […]

Assessing House Prices: Insights from HouseLev, a Dataset of Price Level Estimates

Mardi | 2018-12-04 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Jean-Charles BRICONGNE – Alessandro TURRINI – Peter PONTUCH Despite growing consensus on the relevance of a sound assessment of housing market developments for macro-financial surveillance, housing prices assessments in a multi-country context normally rely on price indexes only. This has a number of limitations, especially if available time series are short and series averages cannot be taken as reliable benchmarks. To address this issue, the present paper computes housing prices in […]

Non Taxation of imputed rent: A gift to Scrooge ? Evidence from France

Mercredi | 2018-11-29 Salle B103 – 12h00 Montserrat BOTEY – Guillaume CHAPELLE In France, imputed rents were taxed until 1965 but were removed from the fiscal base in order to foster homeownership. In this paper, we argue that imputed rent taxation should be treated as the abolition of a five decade subsidy. We then develop a method to assess the amount of tax saved by homeowners and analyze who benefits from this tax exemption using TAXIPP microsimulation model by Landais […]

Rules of Origin and the Profitability of Trade Deflection

Mardi | 2018-11-26 Salle des thèses 10h30 – 12h Gabriel FELBERMAYR – Feodora TETI – Erdal YALCIN When two countries conclude a free trade agreement (FTA), they define rules of origin (RoOs) to determine whether a product is eligible for preferential treatment. RoOs exist to avoid that exports from third countries enter the FTA through the member with the lowest tariff (trade deflection). However, RoOs distort exporters’ sourcing decisions and burden them with red tape. Using a global data set, […]

Individual preferences regarding pesticide-free management of green-spaces: a discrete choice experiment with French citizens

Mardi | 2018-11-20 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Marianne LEFEBVRE – Pauline LAILLE – Masha MASLIANSKAIA-PAUTREL We elicit citizens’ preferences for pesticide-free management in urban green spaces. While the literature has focused mostly on the estimation of willingness to pay for pesticide reduction in agricultural production by farmers and food products by consumers, the originality here is to study a pesticide-free non-agricultural good. We rely on a Discrete Choice Experiment ran on-line in November 2017, on a representative sample […]

Differentiated Impact of AGOA and EBA on West African Countries

Mardi | 2018-11-19 Salle Sully 5 11h – 13h The “African Growth Opportunity Act” (AGOA) and “Everything But Arms” (EBA), two preferential agreements extended by the US (AGOA) and the EU (EBA) to some developing countries seem to have contributed somewhat to boost Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports since 2001. However, not all African countries have benefited from them, among which West African countries. Paradoxically, these latter countries host two of the most advanced regional economic communities in Sub-Saharan Africa: The West […]

Decomposing Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Errors: What Are the Key Factors?

Mardi | 2018-11-13 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Andreea MORARU-ARFIRE – Michel DUBOIS – Zana GRIGALIūNIENE This paper investigates the key determinants of analysts’ earnings forecast errors. We find that the firm-analyst relationship is at the core of the process of forecasting earnings. Specifically, we find that there is an unobserved, time-invariant component related to the firm-analyst dimension that explains much of the variance in the absolute forecast errors. This component is not yet captured by the existing observable […]

Cross-asset holdings and the resiliency of wholesale funding

Mercredi | 2018-10-25 Salle B103 – 12h00 Olessia CAILLÉ – Louis RAFFESTIN We provide a model in which banks that share similar portfolios have an incentive to provide each other with favorable lending conditions, in order to avoid fire sales. This mechanism helps to explain the relatively low reaction of interest rates to rising risk in short-term unsecured lending markets during the 2008-2009 crisis. Nevertheless, systemic risk is not necessarily lower when similar banks act supportively, because increased lending between […]