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Le LÉO s’inscrit pleinement dans les principes de la science ouverte et les recommandations du Plan national pour la science ouverte : la plupart des articles produits par les membres du LÉO passent par le statut préliminaire de Documents de Recherche permettant une mise à disposition plus rapide de la production scientifique du laboratoire avant même le processus d’évaluation par les pairs des revues scientifiques.

Ces DR sont déposés sous Hal-SHS afin de garantir leur archivage pérenne et leur traçabilité.

Contact : Sébastien GALANTI

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The inflation loop is not a myth

Yannick Lucotte, Florian Pradines-Jobet

Résumé non disponible.


The Effects of Climate Change on Public Investment Efficiency in Resource-rich Countries : Evidence from Stochastic Frontier Analysis.


Developingcountriessufferdisproportionatelyfromthenegativeimpactsofclimate changeandenvironmentaldegradationoneconomicdevelopmentintermsoffinancial costs andlossofpotentialrevenues.Inthispaper,weexaminetheimpactofclimatechange on theefficiencyofpublicinvestmentin34developingcountries,withaparticularfocuson resource-richcountries,overtheperiod2000-2013.Usingstochasticfrontieranalysis(SFA) to determineefficiencyscores,wefindthatdevelopingcountriescouldincreasethecapital stockby29%onaveragewithoutchangingtheirpublicinvestmentspending.Inparticular, resource-richcountriescouldincreasethecapitalstockby26%withoutchangingtheir spending.Inthesecondstep,wethenusethefractionalregressionmodel(FRM)to capture theimpactofclimatechangeontheinvestmentefficiencyvaluesobtainedin the firststep.Ourresultsshowthatclimatechangehasanegativeimpactonpublic investmentefficiency.However,whentheclimatechangeindexisdisaggregatedforthe regressions, wefindthatonlyprecipitationhasanegativeeffect,whilea1°C temperature increase inresource-richcountriesleadstoa16.32%improvementinpublicinvestment efficiency ofGDP.Theseresultsarealsostatisticallyandeconomicallyrobusttodifferent controlsandspecifications.Themainfindingsofthispapersuggestthatpoliciestoaddress climate changeingeneralandheavyrainfallshocksinparticularshouldincludestrong provisionsforfinancingmoreresilientpublicinvestmentstoadapttoclimaticconditions and modernisepublicinfrastructurestomitigatethenegativeenvironmentalimpactsfor developingcountries,especiallyresource-richcountries.


Are tax rates still decisive in FDI investment choice or what drives sectoral FDI nowadays?

Nicolae-Bogdan IANC

We explore the effects of effective taxation and institutional quality on sectoral FDI. Our analysis comprises European countries and we use data from 2002 to 2020. We employ a GMM approach and show that a rise in both apparent taxation and tax differential reduces sectoral FDI flow while soaring tax differential increase FDI stock. Among the institutional variables, tertiary enrollment attract FDI and secondary at- tainment has opposite results depending on the sectoral FDI. Our findings indicate that government should lower taxation for more FDI flows and strengthen tertiary and secondary enrollment


Do Sanctions or Moral Costs Prevent the Formation of Cartel-Type Agreements ?


Résumé non disponible.


Can Resource-backed Loans Mitigate Climate Change ?


Resource-backed loans are used today by many resource-rich countries as an effec- tive means of providing public goods and services. However, this type of financing can undermine environmental sustainability (e.g., forest cover loss, CO2 emissions, pollution, ecological collapse, material footprint, etc.). In this paper, we first use propensity score matching, which allows for self-selection bias in signature policies, coarsened exact mat- ching, and the entropy balancing method to test whether resource-backed loans have a causal impact on forest cover loss in 64 developing countries from 2004 to 2018. Through a series of econometric and alternative specification tests, we find that resource-backed loans increase forest cover loss. Nevertheless, when we disaggregate resource-backed loans to run the regressions, we find that mineral, tobacco, and cocoa-backed loans increase forest cover, while oil- backed loans have no significant direct impact on forest cover. We recommend that signatory countries and those considering signing resource-backed loans put in place a very strong compensation mechanism, such as introducing taxes or refor- ming the current tax system in resource-backed loan agreements, to protect biodiversity and mitigate the environmental impacts of these loans. Signatory countries must ensure full transparency of resource-backed loans to make the characteristics of the loans more fluid, avoiding a situation of budgetary debauchery.


Are Additional Payments for Environmental Services Efficient?


The implementation of Payments for Environmental Services (PES) may face a financing constraint, especially when the buyer is a public regulator. An additionality-based PES can address this problem. The objective of this paper is to study the efficiency of PES based on additionality. To do so, we consider a farmer who has to choose to allocate his land between organic production, conventional production causing environmental damage, or biodiversity-generating grass strips. Using a two-period model, we introduce a PES in the final period, remunerating the additional grass strips provided by the farmer. We show that the additional PES distorts the behavior in the initial period, in order to obtain more payment in the final period. The second-best PES to limit this behavior is equal to the discounted difference of the marginal environmental benefits obtained in each period. We also establish the second-best value of environmental taxes in the presence of the additionality-based PES. They are no longer equal to the marginal damage and are amended to take into account the distortions caused by the additionality-based PES. The analysis is then extended by taking into account market power in the organic market. It turns out that market power reduces the distortion due to the additionality-based PES in the initial period but reduces the organic production quantity in the final period. The second-best PES depends on the size of these two effects and environmental taxes under market power have to be amended. Finally, this paper shows that an additionality-based PES never achieves environmental efficiency, even in a competitive market framework. Furthermore, this paper provides new insights into understanding the interactions be- tween different environmental policies in the presence of several types of distortions.


Digital finance, development, and climate change

Sébastien GALANTI Ҫiğdem Yilmaz ӦZSOY

Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are increasingly adopting digital finance, which generally represents a positive driver of development and growth. However, the digital finance sector is known to be a source of large CO2 emissions, thereby contributing to climate change, and SSA countries will likely be the ones that suffer most from climate change. This constitutes a negative channel through which digital finance could impair development. This article aims to disentangle these two channels to assess which effect prevails overall. We analyse the impact of mobile money and bitcoin on the Human Development Index (HDI). We find that mobile money mitigates the negative impact of CO2 emissions. Globally, through its interaction with CO2 emissions, mobile money has a positive impact on development. In contrast, we find weak evidence concerning bitcoin. On its own, bitcoin has a negative impact on HDI.


Growth, Lockdown and the Dynamics of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Luciana BARTOLINI, Francesco MAGRIS Alissa STEL

We present an extended dynamic equilibrium framework describing the simultaneous evolution of aggregate economic variables, of the Covid-19 reproduction index and of the lockdown measure. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the stationary solution and characterize its stability features. We also perform some comparative statics exercises in order to test how epidemiological and economic variables are affected by public containment measures. Namely, more restrictive lockdowns accelerate the process of absorption of the pandemic but slows down economic activity. When public spending financed through income taxation and reinvested entirely in public spending on health is accounted, there is an optimal level of the tax rate that minimizes fatalities. We also characterize the optimal stationary lockdown trading-off health needs, which require reinforced containment measures, and economic needs, which instead require relatively high degrees of opening of the economic activity.


How Do Natural Resource – Backed Loans Affect the Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Countries? Empirical Evidence

Yacouba COULIBALY Alexandru MINEA Patrick VILLIEU

Several countries with abundant subsoil assets in the form of oil, gas and minerals have shown significant interest in the financing model known as resource-backed loans. In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of resource-backed loans on public debt sustainability for 64 developing countries over the period 1990-2018. Using the propensity score matching method through a battery of econometric and alternative specification tests, we find that resource-backed loans reduce public debt. In addition, we look at the magnitude over the first seven years, the results indicate that resource-backed loans are most effective from the second to the seventh year after adoption. We also show that this favorable effect is sensitive to several structural characteristics of countries. These findings help inform policymakers in resource-rich countries that underwriting resource-backed loans is not only a crucial dimension to the provision of public goods and services through infrastructure investments and development, but also a path to better fiscal policy management some year after the signing of loans and the completion of the targeted investments in developing countries. However, resource-rich countries considering a resource-backed loan will need to focus on anti-corruption, good governance and strengthening institutional quality to prevent these resource-backed loans from triggering a pro-cyclical effect on their fiscal policy.


An Experimental Analysis of Investor Sentiment


We use an experiment with a sample of professional investors to study the impact of text and emojis on investment proportion. We find that text - provided as a supplementary information - have a statistically significant on investors’ decisions. However, the magnitude of the impact is too small (around 1%) to conclude that investor sentiment has an economically significant impact on investment decisions. We also find that emojis have no impact investment decisions. Overall, our results are consistent with the efficient market hypothesis: in an experimental setting where the payoff and the probability of each decision are known, investment decisions of sophisticated traders are driven mostly by the type of asset, the level of risks and the associated return of each investment and not by investor sentiment.