Mardi | 2018-02-13 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Gerhard TOWENS – Pierre-Louis VéZINA We show that giant and unpredictable oil and gas discoveries in developing countries trigger FDI bonanzas. Across countries, we document a 58% increase in FDI in the 2 years following a giant discovery. This effect is driven by new projects in non-resource sectors such as manufacturing, retail, business services and construction. We illustrate this mechanism using Mozambique’s recent post-discovery FDI boom. We combine concurrent waves of […]

Mercredi | 2018-02-08 Salle B103 – 12h00 Sullivan HUE – Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU – Christophe HURLIN – Sessi TOKPAVI Decision trees and related ensemble methods like random forest are state-of-the-art tools in the eld of machine learning for predictive regression and classi cation. However, they lack interpretability and can be less relevant in credit scoring applications, where decision-makers and regulators need a transparent linear score function that usually corresponds to the link function in logistic regressions. In this paper, we propose […]

Mercredi | 2018-02-01 Salle B103 – 12h00 Tobignaré YABRE Ce papier propose une nouvelle explication de l’adoption de mesures de stabilisation budgétaire à travers l’expérience de 43 pays d’Afrique sub-saharienne sur la période 2000-2015. Nous procédons par identification des épisodes et des stratégies d’ajustement sur la base du déficit primaire ajusté des variations cycliques (CAPD). L’estimation d’un modèle logit et des analyses de robustesse permettent de dégager trois principales conclusions. D’abord, la probabilité d’adoption de mesures de stabilisation augmente en […]

Mardi | 2018-01-30 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Clément MATHONNAT – Benjamin WILLIAMS Whole arrays of recent empirical studies show that both banking crises and the increase in the size of the financial sector play a central and important role in the evolution of income inequalities over the last decades. To our knowledge, no study has so far sought to link these three elements with the aim to investigate the role of the size of the banking sector in […]

Mercredi | 2018-01-25 Salle B103 – 12h00 Yunzhi ZHANG – Camélia TURCU Does China’s foreign aid impact export?

Mardi | 2018-01-23 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Jérôme GAUTIé L’actualité renouvelée des controverses autour du salaire minimum invite à resituer celles-ci dans une histoire longue qui commence à la fin du XIXème siècle. Cette histoire est abordée ici en articulant trois niveaux d’analyse. Les deux premiers portent respectivement sur l’étude des contenus empiriques et théoriques des controverses économiques, et sur celle de leurs enjeux méthodologiques et même, au-delà, épistémologiques. Un troisième niveau d’analyse, selon une approche de sociologie […]

Mercredi | 2018-01-18 Salle B103 – 12h00 Kady Synthia KEITA – Camélia TURCU We explore how fiscal rules, pegged exchange rate regimes and institutional quality affect the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy (i.e how government spending responds to GDP fluctuations). We perform our analysis on a panel of 153 advanced, emerging and developing countries over the period 1993-2015 using LGWOLS and 2SLS estimators. We find that fiscal rules alone are not enough to promote counter-cyclical fiscal policy and should be […]

Mardi | 2018-01-16 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 This paper analyses the effects of flow pollution implied by the use of non-renewable resources on an overlapping economy. Notably, it shows that, on the balanced growth path, flow pollution reduces the resource use and thus increases the ability of an economy to sustain a non-decreasing consumption path. In addition, the paper analyses decentralization strategies that are able to put the decentralized economy on an optimal balanced growth path. If the […]

Mardi | 2018-01-09 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Anthony TERRIAU This paper examines the inefficiency issues of occupation-specific human capital investments in a model with search frictions and occupational mobility over the lifecycle. Firstly, we highlight how the existence of social externalities related to training, not taken into account by employers, cause an under-investment in occupation-specific vocational training compared with what it would be optimal to do. Secondly, we show that this lack of training leads to some occupational […]

Mardi | 2017-12-19 Salle des thèses 16h – 17h20 Pierrick CLERC Existing business-cycle models for which firms unilaterally adjust labor along both the intensive and extensive margins have difficulties in reproducing the dynamics of employment and hours per worker. Within a New-Keynesian framework with search frictions in the labor market, we show that a much higher pro-cyclicality for marginal labor cost than for average labor cost, in accordance with empirical observations, is a crucial mechanism for replicating labor-market fluctuations. At […]