Séminaires de recherche

Mardi | 2014-05-06
Salle des thèses

Tsvetelina MARIVONA – Nikolay NENOVSKY

This article studies budgetary positions and trends in sovereign debt levels in two groups of EU Member States during the global financial and economic crisis. We argue that current fiscal positions and trends in sovereign debt in the Baltic states and Bulgaria are above all due to the implemented exchange rate mechanism whereas in the southern European countries and Ireland it is the institutional framework of the eurozone that plays a key role for national budgetary policies and respectively debt trends. The existence of an insurance or guarantee fund in the eurozone makes the key difference between its hardly pegged exchange rates and Currency board and has led to the loosening of fiscal discipline especially in the South Europe.The article is organized as follows: first, the theoretical framework of the study is presented; second, public finances and sovereign debt trends before the beginning of the global crisis are studied and third, budgetary positions and sovereign debt challenges during the crisis are analyzed.

Mardi | 2014-04-29
Sully 5

Attila GYORGY – Emilian-Constantin MIRICESCU

The paper focuses on Romanian experiences regarding the EU funds absorption by administrative-territorial units. Local public authorities implement EU projects in order to develop their communities and to satisfy the people needs by public goods and services. The main issues that we will study in our paper are: (i) the evolution of EU fund absorption in local budgets, (ii) EU project financing throughout local budgets, (iii) the possibilities and opportunities to finance the EU projects. We will use the SWOT matrix in order to analyze internal and external conditions on the topic of the EU funds absorption by Romanian local public administration and we will recommend improvement measures in this specific field.

Mardi | 2014-04-29
Sully 5

Rui Henrique ALVES – Andrea STOIAN – Francisco SERRANITO

In this paper, we investigate the issues regarding the stabilization of public debt and its decrease down to 60 per cent of GDP for selected european union countries using the primary balance derived from the public debt dynamic model as a leading indicator. We find that there is a high probability of stabilizing public debt at its 2014 level conditional on achieving an increased GDP growth rate. In addition, results indicate that it would take at least 10 years for many of the analyzed countries to decrease their public debt ratio to 60 per cent of GDP. We also draw conclusions on what really matters for fiscal sustainability and on implications for national and European fiscal policies.

Mardi | 2014-04-15
Sully 5

Paul MAAREK – Elsa ORGIAZZI

We highlight a U-shaped relationship between development and the labor share of income. We exploit the within dimension of a panel dataset for the wage bill and value added in the manufacturing sector for developing countries. Data is available at the aggregate manufacturing level and also at the desaggregate level for 28 manufacturing sub sectors. We show that the U-shaped pattern of the labor share we observe at the aggregate level is also observed at the sub sector level suggesting it’ does not correspond to reallocation forces across sector that occur during the development process. Our theory emphasizes the role of firms’ monop-sony power when labor market has frictions in a dual labor market in which modern and high productivity firms coexist with low productivity and traditional firms. At first stages of development, productivity gains are not compensated by wage increases, as most of workers’ outside opportunities depend on the low productivity traditional sector. At later stages, the labor share increases as a result of wage competition in the modern sector.

Mercredi | 2014-04-09
B103

Asma BEN SAAD-LAKHAL

L’impact de l’immobilier sur la conjoncture économique, pendant les conditions favorables tout comme lors des crises, se diffère d’un pays à un autre. Les caractéristiques économiques, les spécificités institutionnelles,l’intervention des autorités et les conditions de financement propres à chaque pays conditionnent le poids de l’investissement résidentiel dans l’évolution économique. Dans ce papier, nous nous intéressons à la contribution de l’investissement résidentiel Français autour de la période de ralentissement mesuré par la méthodologie de Leamer (2007).Déterminant la contribution anormale cumulée de chaque composant de la demande globale à la croissance du PIB entre la fin de l’année 1950 et le début de 2013(1), nous trouvons qu’en moyenne l’investissement résidentiel contribue à 10% à la baisse totale de la croissance du PIB un an avant le ralentissement. Cependant, à partir des premiers trimestres d’un ralentissement, l’investissement résidentiel contribue favorablement à la croissance du PIB Français.

Mardi | 2014-04-08
Sully 5

Jean DUBE – Diègo LEGROS

This paper addresses the possible problem related to using strictly spatial modelling techniques for spatial data pooled over time. For these data, such as real estate, the spatial dimension is present, but subject to constraints related to temporal dimension. Three empirical examples are presented to investigate the impact of neglecting the temporal dimension in spatial analysis and to show how such an approach overestimates the pattern of spatial dependence, and overestimates the spatial autoregressive coefficient estimated. If generalized to all other empirical applications, this conclusion may have important considerations if one tries to measure the effect of extrinsic amenities on house prices.

Mardi | 2014-04-01
Sully 5

Djamel KIRAT – Ibrahim AHAMADA – Mouez FODHA

Pas d’article, SLIDE

Mardi | 2014-03-25
Salle des thèses

Stéphanie COLLET – Kim OOSTERLINCK

The impact of sovereign debt repudiation is relatively well documented. The market reactions to warnings regarding a repudiation have however never been investigated. Are organized protests and the threat of a possible future repudiation perceived as credible by the markets? This paper analyzes the case of the Russian 1906 loan. Protests were staged against the loan which was viewed by the opposition to the autocratic tsarist regime as a loan which would help a despotic regime to further pressure its people. The paper shows that the market required a premium to hold such a controversial loan, and this despite the attempts made by the Russian government to present the loan as clean.

Mardi | 2014-03-25
Salle des thèses

Stéphanie COLLET

“Unfair” sovereign debts, used, for instance, to suppress a rebellion, may be declared “odious” and not be repaid once the former regime is overthrown. Bondholders may there-fore require a premium to compensate for the higher default risk due to the potentially odious character of these debts. On the basis of an original database of Cuban bonds, the paper shows the existence of a risk premium of at least 200 basis points which penalized bonds issued by the Spanish occupation regime. Bond market reactions to events changing the perception that the debts were “unfair” or that they would be repudiated are analysed on the basis of a structural VAR.

Mardi | 2014-03-18
salle des thèses

Francesco DI COMITE – Antonella NOCCO – Gianluca OREFICE

In this paper we develop a three-country monopolistic competition model with variable elasticity of substitution and vertical linkages to study the impact of trade liberalization on trade creation, trade diversion and labor market outcomes. This framework allows us to identify a source of gain from trade often neglected in the literature: cost savings on capital investments. Our model is empirically motivated by the observation that trade liberalization, stimulates trade between the integrating countries and diverts it away from third countries, but it is not associated with increases in exports towards the excluded countries. As for the labor market, trade liberalization is expected to: (i) lower unskilled employment in country-sectors with low export intensity and (ii) to increase the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers. Trade liberalization is also expected to raise welfare. We test the model’s predictions using a dataset on bilateral export flows from 17 OECD exporting countries towards 122 importing countries over the period 1996 to 2007. Our empirical analysis provides results in line with the theory and vindicates the inclusion of vertical linkages in future assessments of the impact of trade liberalization on trade flows, labor markets and welfare.