Séminaires de recherche


How to Evaluate and Early Warning System?

Mardi | 2009-12-08

Bertrand Candelon – Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU – Christophe HURLIN – Jaouad MADKOUR

This paper proposes a new statistical framework inherited from the traditional credit-scoringliterature, to evaluate currency crises Early Warning System (EWS). Applied so as to assessthe predictive power of panel logit and Markov frameworks, it results that the panel logitis outperforming the Markov switching ones. Furthermore, the introduction of forward loo-king variables clearly improves the forecasting properties of the EWS. It thus con rms theadequacy of the second generation crisis models in explaining the occurrence of crises.

Estimating Nonlinearities in Spatial Auregressive Models

Mardi | 2009-12-01

Nicolas DEBARSY – Vincenzo VERARDI – Amine LAHIANI

In spatial autoregressive models, the functional form of autocorrelationis assumed to be linear. In this paper, we propose a simple semiparametricprocedure, based on Yatchew’s (1997) partial linear least squares, that doesnot impose this restriction. Simple simulations show that this model outper-forms traditional SAR estimation when nonlinearities are present. We thenapply the methodology on real data to test for the spatial pattern of vot-ing for independent candidates in US presidential elections. We …nd thatin some counties, votes for  » third candidates » are non-linearly related tovotes for  » third candidates » in neighboring counties, which pleads in favorof strategic behavior.

What Gains from Liberalisation of Trade in Service: Lessons from Modelling and Political Economy

Mardi | 2009-11-24

Thierry MONTALIEU – Isabelle RABAUD – Thierry BAUDASSE

Theoretically, welfare gains from liberalisation of trade in services arise from falling pricesand technology transfers from foreign firms. Empirically, substantial gains are only reachedwhen entry of foreign firms is widened. These results rest upon three strong assumptions.First, substitution elasticities need to be important, which is not the case empirically foraggregated service data. Second, information is required on the breakdown of the initial pricewedgebetween rent and inefficient technology. Third, wage differences do not reflect onlyproductivity gaps. This paper argues that, such strong hypotheses tend to over-estimate thegains expected from liberalising trade in services. Design of reforms and economic policyconsiderations matter too, including not only timing and sequencing issues but also the tradeoffbetween regional arrangements and multilateral agreements.

Untalented but Successful

Mardi | 2009-11-10


When studying the problem of the emergence of superstars, scholars face dif-…culties in measuring talent, obtaining con…dential data on earnings, and …ndingeconometric techniques that are robust to the presence of outliers (superstars).In this paper we use a quasi-experimental dataset from the Pokemon trading cardgame in which (i) there is no unidenti…able heterogeneity, (ii) rarity can be sepa-rated from talent and (iii) objective earnings are observable through transactionprices. Using semi-parametric estimation techniques, we …nd that the seminaltheories of superstars developed by Rosen (1981) and Adler (1985) are comple-mentary and not, as is often claimed, mutually exclusive.

Labour Standards and Migration: do Labour Conditions Matter ?

Mardi | 2009-10-13

Rémi BAZILLIER – Yasser Moullan – Thierry BAUDASSE

We study in this paper the interactions between migration rates and the level of labourstandards. We use an augmented version of the Grogger and Hanson (2008) model, addingthe level of working conditions into the specification. Our hypothesis is that the differentialof working conditions may be a complementary determinant of migration. In a first time, wetest the influence of labour standards in countries of origin using a database on emigrationrates built by Defoort (2006) for the period 1975-1995. For labour standards, we built anoriginal index with a temporal dimension. We find that labour standards in the sourcecountries does not have a significant impact on the probability of moving abroad. In asecond time, we use a bilateral migration database built by Marfouk and Docquier (2004) inorder to test the influence of labour standards in destination countries. If labour standardsin the source countries do not have a significant impact on migration flows, level of labourconditions in destination countries have multiple effects on bilateral migration flows. Socialprotection or protection of collective relations have a positive impact on migration, whilejob and employment protection laws have the opposite effect. We also find that high-skilledworkers are much more sensitive to social security benefits while low skilled workers aremore attracted by a protective job and employment legislation.