Mardi | 2013-06-11 salle des thèses Badi H. BALTAJI – Alain PIROTTE This paper derives the Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (BLUP) for a spatial nested error components panel data model. This predictor is useful for panel data applications that exhibit spatial dependence and a nested (hierarchical) structure. The predictor allows for unbalancedness in the number of observations in the nested groups. One application includes forecasting average housing prices located in a county nested in a state. We derive the BLUP […]

Mardi | 2013-06-04 B103 Neslihan SAKARYA – Robert DE JONG The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a commonly used tool in macroeconomics, and is used to extract a trend component from a time series. In this paper, we derive a new representation of the transformation of the data that is implied by the HP fi lter. This representation highlights that the HP filter is a weighted average plus a number of adjustments that are important near the begin and end of […]

Mardi | 2013-05-21 B103 Jean-Yves GNABO – Diego MOCCERO We contribute to the empirical literature on the risk-management approach to monetary policy by estimating regime switching models where the strength of the response of monetary policy to macroeconomic conditions depends on the level of risk associated with the inflation outlook and risk in financial markets. Using quarterly data for the Greenspan period we find that: i) risk in the inflation outlook and volatility in financial markets are a more powerful […]

Mardi | 2013-05-07 B103 Christophe PERIGNON – Boris VALLEE We examine the toxic loans sold by investment banks to local governments. Using proprietary data, we show that politicians strategically use these products to increase chances of being re-elected. Consistent with greater incentives to hide debt, toxic loans are utilized significantly more frequently within highly indebted local governments. Incumbent politicians from politically contested areas are also more likely to turn to toxic loans. Using a difference in-differences methodology, we show that […]

Mercredi | 2013-04-30 Sully 4 Cem ERTUR – Marion NICOLUCCI

Mercredi | 2013-04-19 B103 Eric YAYI – Alexis DIRER Les épargnants d étenant des titres nanciers risqu es ont-ils tendance a investir à contretemps sur les march és boursiers, achetant au sommet et vendant dans les creux ? R éduisent-ils leur exposition au risque avec l’âge et en particulier à l’approche de la retraite ? Nous r épondons à ces deux questions à l’aide des donn ées d’un grand assureur fran cais répertoriant les souscriptions de contrats Madelin entre 2002 […]

Mardi | 2013-04-16 B103 Nathalie GUILBERT – Karine MARAZYAN In Senegal, 16% of young mothers have given births out-of-wedlock. In a country, where fecundity is mainly thought inside the marriage institution, this proportion is rather surprising. In this paper, we are interested in testing the existence of a stigmatization on both the mother and the out of wedlock child. To investigate this question, we examine the consequences of premarital births on women’s marital trajectory and on children’s health in Senegal. […]

Mercredi | 2013-04-10 B103 Sylvain BENOIT The aim of this paper is to emphasize the importance of choosing the level of the system (global, european or national) when dealing with systemic risk. Up to now, additional supervision and regulation were established for global systemically important banks, G-SIBs. The paper highlights the need for managing domestic systemically important banks, D-SIBs. This issue is central when focusing on Europe where each country should identify its D-SIBs whereas the Basel Committee on Banking […]

Mercredi | 2013-03-27 B103 Désiré KANGA Cet article analyse les effets des politiques d’assouplissement conduites par la Banque Centrale Européenne (BCE) sur l’activité de crédit au sein de la zone euro en répondant à deux questions. La première identifie les facteurs de transmission de ces politiques tandis que la seconde aborde la problématique des conditions de crédit. Il ressort que les politiques d’assouplissement conduites par la BCE ont eu un impact significatif sur l’offre de crédit dans les pays analysés […]

Mardi | 2013-03-26 B103 Ujjayant CHAKRAVORTY – Beyza Ural MARCHAND – Martino PELLI This paper studies the effects of increased access to electricity in rural India on household income. We examine the effect of electrification at the intensive margin as well as from connecting to the grid – the extensive margin. The analysis is based on two rounds of a representative panel of more than 10,000 households. We use the district-level variation in land elevation and the district-level density of […]