Mardi | 2015-02-17 Sully 5, 16h30-18h Jean-Charles BRICONGNE – Irène GRIALOU  » Does the profile of chief economists in charge of forecasting in public and private institutions matter for the quality of their forecasting? Different arguments may be invoked in favor or against this argument: chief economists do not always influence directly forecasting, and it may be rather due to the quality of the staff, but on the other hand, the staff may be chosen, reorganized and influenced by the […]

Mercredi | 2015-02-11 salle B103, 12h-14h Leonardo Eric CALCAGNO The aim of this paper is to lay the foundations of a prospective analysis that will draw perspectives on Argentina’s Pay-As-You-Go pension system. After a brief description of the country’s pension system, this paper develops a dynamic microsimulation model and calibrates it with a household-level quarterly survey data, the EPH. The calibration is done both on a micro level (by modelling individual transition probabilities between labour-market states) and on a macro […]

Mardi | 2015-02-10 Sully 5, 16h-17h20 Vicard VINCENT This paper provides direct evidence of profit shifting to low tax jurisdictions by multinational companies through transfer prices. Using detailed firm level export and import data by destination and product for France, I show that the price wedge between arm’s length trade and related party trade varies systematically with the differential in corporate tax rate between France and the partner country. Profit shifting through transfer prices is estimated to have reduced the […]

Mercredi | 2015-02-04 salle B103, 12h-14h Nabila BOUKEF JLASSI Le contrôle des capitaux internationaux représente une des solutions réglementaires permettant de pallier au risque d’instabilité financière. Cela est d’autant plus important que les mouvements de capitaux internationaux continuent à affluer vers les pays en développement, augmentant ainsi les risques nés d’une telle politique de libéralisation financière externe. Le présent papier se propose d’étudier l’efficacité du contrôle des capitaux à assurer la stabilité financière dans les pays en développement.

Mardi | 2015-02-03 Sully 5, 16h-17h20 Christophe LAVIALLE Le papier revient sur le débat autour du concept de chômage involontaire, et de son acceptabilité au sein de la science économique. Il montre que ce débat, tel qu’il a été recensé par De Vroey, et qui oppose fondamentalement Keynes et Lucas, renvoie à une série de questions épistémologiques sur le fonctionnement du langage de la science économique, et sa capacité à véhiculer de la connaissance. Ces questions relèvent, en amont de […]

Mardi | 2015-01-27 Sully 5, 16h-17h20 Christine FAUVELLE-AYMAR This paper proposes an analysis of the impact of immigration on the situation of native workers in the labour market of South countries with an empirical study devoted to the analysis of the South African labour market.The paper first presents the methodology and the main results of the empirical literature on the impact of immigration on labour market. This question has been largely examined in the context of migration to North countries […]

Mardi | 2015-01-20 Sully 5 – 16h-17h20 Rudiger AHREND – Emily FARCHY – Ioannis KAPLANIS – Alexander C. LEMBCKE This paper estimates agglomeration benefits across five OECD countries, and represents the first empirical analysis of how metropolitan governance structures might affect city productivity. The comparability of results in a multi-country setting is supported through the use of a new internationally harmonised definition of cities based on economic linkages rather than administrative boundaries. In line with the literature, the analysis confirms […]

Mercredi | 2015-01-14 salle B103, 12h-14h Ismaël ISSIFOU Empirical evidence suggests that economic downturn is a key driver of the improvement in governance quality. This paper uses the commodity exports price growth rate, the net barter terms of trade and the exports growth rate to identify the effect of economic upturnon various aspects of governance. We find that positive economic shocks induce better governance. Moreover, our results suggest that governance quality depends on the type of shocks that prevail in […]

Mardi | 2015-01-13 Sully 5, 16h-17h20 Patrick GAGLIARDINI – Elisa OSSOLA – Olivier SCAILLET We build a simple diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure in large cross-sectional equity datasets. Given a model for asset returns with observable factors, the criterion checks whether the error terms are weakly cross-sectionally correlated or share at least one unobservable common factor. It only requires computing the largest eigenvalue of the empirical cross-sectional covariance matrix of the residuals of a large unbalanced panel. The panel […]

Mercredi | 2014-12-17 salle B103, 12h-14h Hadi KHALIL – Syed Muhammad Noaman Ahmed SHAH In this paper, we try to analyze the spillover effects of sovereign debt crisis in Euro-area on non-financial corporate sector through banks liquidity creation transmission channel. The existing empirical literature mainly treats the sovereign-bank or bank-corporate nexus while gauging the spillover effects of vulnerability in the said sectors. The current study is an attempt to fill the gap and provides a novel approach to view the […]