Mardi | 2016-03-29 Sully05 de 16h à 17h20 Anna SIMONI – Siddhartha CHIB – Minchul SHIN In this paper we consider the problem of inference in statistical models characterized via moment restrictions and develop a semiparametric Bayes procedure for selecting valid and relevant moments. We cast the moment estimation problem in the Exponentially Tilted Empirical Likelihood (ETEL) framework introduced by Schennach (2007). Because the ETEL has a well-defined probabilistic interpretation and plays the role of a likelihood, a fully Bayesian […]

Mardi | 2016-03-22 Sully05 de 16h à 17h20 Florian FIZAINE – Victore COURT In the present paper we relate the recent estimations of the historical (1800-2011) global EROI of fossil fuels production performed by Court and Fizaine (2015) to the tremendous increase in Gross World Production that the global economy has encountered during the same period. We first show that on this entire period of study, there is a power inverse relationship that exists between the average price of aggregated […]

Mardi | 2016-03-15 16h-17h20 en sully5 Alberto BAGNAI – Christian Alexander MONGEAU OSPINA Building on the well-established “rockets and feathers” literature, and on the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modelling, we investigate the asymmetries in gasoline pricing on a comprehensive sample of monthly data from twelve Eurozone countries running from 1999:1 to 2015:12. The empirical results feature two robust patterns. Firstly, while the effects of exchange rate variations display a positive asymmetry (i.e., depreciations have a greater effect […]

Mercredi | 2016-03-09 B103 – 12h Nada MSELMI – Taher HAMZA – Amine LAHIANI A venir

Mardi | 2016-03-08 16-17h20 sully 05 Juan PAEZ-FARRELL The objective of this paper is to infer the policy preferences of three inflation targeting central banks, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, using an estimated New Keynesian small open economy model. While I assume that the monetary authorities optimise, I depart from previous research by assuming that monetary policy is implemented via simple Taylor-type rules, as suggested by most of the empirical literature. I then derive the weights in the objective function […]

Mercredi | 2016-03-02 B103 – 12h Asma BEN SAAD-LAKHAL – Muhammad KHAN A venir

Mardi | 2016-03-01 16h-17h20 Sully05 Jean-Bernard CHATELAIN – Kirsten RALF Assuming inflation is a forward variable in Taylor (1999) model, this paper finds opposite policy rule recommendations with countercyclical policy rule parameters (Taylor principle: inflation rule larger than one and bounded upwards) in the case of optimal policy under commitment versus pro-cyclical policy rule parameters (inflation rule parameter below zero) in the case of discretionary policy. For the observed high inertia of the Fed with tiny variations of the nominal […]

Mercredi | 2016-02-24 B212 -12h Nicolas CLOOTENS A venir

Mardi | 2016-02-23 16-17h20 Sully-05 Malik KERKOUR – Jean-Yves GNABO – Christelle LECOURT – Helene REYMOND Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been increasingly active over the past decade, raising concern from governments regarding their actual motives and potential cross-border stakes in national strategic sectors. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature to understand better the decisions taken by this new class of investors. The whole process of investment decision strategy is complex in the sense […]

Mardi | 2016-02-09 Salle Sully 5, 16h00 à 17h20 This paper studies the lifetime effects of exogenous changes in health insurance coverage (e.g. Medicare, PPACA, termination of employer-provided plans) on the dynamic optimal allocation (consumption, leisure, health expenditures), status (health, wealth and survival rates), and welfare. We solve, structurally estimate, and simulate a parsimonious life cycle model with endogenous exposure to morbidity and mortality risks to analyze the impact of young (resp. old) insurance status conditional on old (resp. young) […]