Accueil

Accueil Accueil

Filtrer

Accueil

Transforming Under Pressure : Climate Risks, GVCs, and Structural Change

Date : Jeudi | 2025-11-27 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle B.103

Lien TEAMS : Cliquer ici pour rejoindre le séminaire doctorant du LÉO

Benen ALAYA (IHEC Carthage)

This article investigates how climate risks shape the contribution of global value chains (GVCs) to structural transformation. The findings indicate that GVC participation is a key driver of change, promoting upgrading and productive reallocation. Yet environmental pressures—particularly CO₂ emissions and heightened exposure to climate hazards—slow these processes by imposing new constraints on development pathways. The interplay between global integration and climate vulnerability therefore reveals a space of transformation “under pressure,” where the gains from GVC engagement hinge on the ability to manage and mitigate environmental risks. Regional evidence shows that these dynamics are especially pronounced in Asia, where deep GVC integration coexists with growing climate exposure.

Lire l'article

First-year PhD Students Presentation

Date : Jeudi | 2025-10-02 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

Lien TEAMS : Cliquer ici pour rejoindre le séminaire du LÉO

S P E C I A L S E S S I O N

Two new PhD. Students from the LEO (Université d'Orléans) will present their thesis projects. Each of them will give a 15 minutes presentation followed by a 15 minutes discussion :

Salma Barhouni (International Economics/Sustainable Development Team)
Ludivine Vaudrée (Econometrics Team)

Lire l'article

1ère Conférence Annuelle « Les ECOPOL »

Date : Vendredi 19 septembre 2025 à 09h00
Lieu : MAME – Cité de la Création et de l’Innovation, Tours
& Hôtel de Ville, Tours

Organisateur(s) : LÉO

Comprendre le monde de demain
Crise sanitaire, guerre en Ukraine, retour de Trump… Autant de chocs qui bouleversent les équilibres mondiaux.
ECOPOL 2025 vous propose d’analyser ces mutations à travers le prisme de la géo-économie et des relations internationales.

Tables rondes & échanges avec :

Des experts en géopolitique et commerce international
Des chercheurs de renom
Des journalistes spécialisés
Des professionnels du monde économique et politique

Consulter le site de la conférence

Lire l'article

Les mutations de la finance dans un monde fragmenté

Date : Mardi 07 octobre 2025 à 09h00
Lieu : Amphi Veil - Faculté de Droit, Économie et Gestion

Organisateur(s) : Faculté DEG Orléans - LÉO

Dans un contexte international marqué par les crises géopolitiques, les tensions commerciales et les transformations technologiques, la conférence « Les mutations de la finance dans un monde fragmenté » propose de réfléchir aux évolutions récentes de la finance mondiale.

Quels sont les impacts de la fragmentation économique sur les marchés financiers ?
Comment les institutions et les acteurs financiers s’adaptent-ils à ces nouvelles incertitudes ?
Quelles perspectives pour une régulation efficace dans un système global de plus en plus divisé ?

Cette journée de réflexion rassemblera chercheurs, économistes et professionnels de la finance autour de ces grandes problématiques.

Comité d’organisation :

Raphaëlle BELLANDO (LÉO, Université d'Orléans), Pierre GAZÉ (LÉO, Université d'Orléans), Mélie HENAULT (LÉO, Université d'Orléans), Isabelle LECRAS (LÉO, Université d'Orléans), Françoise LE QUÉRÉ (LÉO, Université d'Orléans), Patrick VILLIEU (LÉO, Université d'Orléans)

Programme complet

Lire l'article

Should I Wait or Should I Pay? The Dynamics of Private and Public Healthcare

Date : Jeudi | 2025-06-19 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

Lien TEAMS : Cliquer ici pour rejoindre le séminaire doctorant du LÉO

Bianca Tanasa (DEAMS/University of Trieste)

In many countries, a private health system coexists with the public one. Recently, however, it seems that the latter is subjected to budgetary cuts and no longer able to meet the needs of citizens. Within an OLG model in which young people invest in preventive medicine, we assume that the public health system is rationed by increasing waiting times, which entails a cost in terms of treatment effectiveness and psychological order. Considering a fiscal policy aimed at providing health services, stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio and taxing the income of the working population, we demonstrate that there emerge two stationary solutions. The highest steady state turns out to be globally stable, while the lower one globally unstable. In addition, investment in preventive medicine and spending on private health are pro-cyclical, while waiting times are counter-cyclical. We also study the set of optimal allocations chosen by a benevolent social planner and prove that investment in preventive medicine as well as total spending on health are pro-cyclical and their long run values are increasing in the social discount factor. Finally, we decentralize the set of optimal allocations by fixing opportunely the debt-to-GDP ratio and Government spending.

Lire l'article

Should the Central Bank react? Extreme Weather Events and Price Dynamics in the Philippines

Date : Jeudi | 2025-06-05 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle B.103

Lien TEAMS : Cliquer ici pour rejoindre le séminaire doctorant du LÉO

Flavien VILBERT (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

This paper contributes to the ongoing climate literature by investigating the macroeconomic consequences of physical risks. We estimate whether extreme weather events (EWE) are likely to trigger national inflationary pressures in the Philippines over the last three decades. We rely on meterological intensity measures using high-frequency ERA5 data to build a damaging-disaster series. This serves as an external instrument to identify the dynamic causal effect in a simple econometric framework. This work offers insights into how intense weather events propagate into the economy and it evaluates potential implications for the BSP's (Bangkok Central ng Pilipinas) monetary policy.

Lire l'article

Seeing Through the Algorithm: How Explainability Shapes Decision-Making on Robo-Advisor Platforms

Date : Jeudi | 2025-05-22 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

Lien TEAMS : Cliquer ici pour rejoindre le séminaire doctorant du LÉO

Mehdi LOUAFI (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

This paper examines how algorithmic explainability shapes user decision-making and engagement on a leading French robo-advisor platform. In a large-scale field experiment, we randomly assigned 4,646 prospective clients to one of two conditions: a treatment group that viewed a graphical breakdown of the factors driving their personalized risk-profile recommendation, or a control group that received no additional information. Our primary analyses show that, on average, providing an explanation neither changes the probability of accepting the recommended risk score nor affects deviations from it. However, we uncover significant heterogeneity in treatment effects. First, among mobile users, explanations reduce the number of profile-adjustment attempts before contract signing. Second, for users who initially deviate conservatively from the algorithm’s suggestion, explanations prompt even more conservative portfolio choices. Finally, leveraging machine-learning methods, we estimate conditional average treatment effects across socio-demographic and economic subgroups, identifying additional segments for which explainability meaningfully alters behavior.

Lire l'article

Forecasting Inflation Expectations with Adaptive Learning

Date : Jeudi | 2025-05-15 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

Lien TEAMS : Cliquez ici pour rejoindre le séminaire du LÉO

Cyril DELL'EVA (Université de Rouen / LERN)

Inflation expectations in the QPM are approximated with the BER Survey of Inflation Expectations. These are forecasted by using an exogenous AR(1) process, constrained to converge to the target at the two year horizon. The AR(1) process imposes strong judgment on the forecasting of inflation and it is unlikely to forecast expectations correctly, outside a small short run window. We substitute the AR(1) process with an adaptive learning process, driven by data, to forecast BER expectations. We show that an adaptive learning process is a realistic approximation of the inflation expectations process and leads to a more accurate inflation forecast.

Lire l'article

Carbon curse: As you extract, so you will burn

Date : Jeudi | 2025-04-24 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

Lien TEAMS : Cliquez ici pour rejoindre le séminaire du LÉO

Adrien DESROZIERS (LÉO, Université d'Orléans)

The “Carbon Curse” theory suggests that fossil fuel richness leads countries to have more carbon-intensive development trajectories than they would otherwise. Using causal inference for cross-country panel data spanning 1950–2018, we globally estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on carbon emissions. Our findings show that the effect is sizable and persistent. Our results show a substantial and persistent impact: countries that experience giant oil and gas discoveries emit approximately 40% more CO₂ post-discovery compared to their resource-poor counterparts. This effect is particularly pronounced in developing economies and emerges immediately after the first discovery, reinforcing the notion that fossil fuel wealth induces long-term path dependencies. These findings highlight the significant barriers that fossil fuel-rich nations face in aligning with decarbonization goals, posing substantial challenges for meeting the Paris Agreement targets. By exploiting the randomness of the timing of discoveries, we provide the first plausibly causal evidence in support of the “Carbon Curse”.

Lire l'article

Trusting up: How Social Hierarchies shape Social Trust

Date : Jeudi | 2025-04-30 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

Lien TEAMS : Cliquez ici pour rejoindre le séminaire du LÉO

Catherine BROS (LÉO, Université de Tours)

This paper examines the impact of social hierarchy on trust dynamics within the Indian caste system, building on social identity theory. We find that higher castes enjoy a trust surplus from lower castes, which is only partially reduced when caste identity is emphasized. This asymmetrical trust premium is linked to the higher status of upper castes and is supported by narratives about caste success and failure. Our findings integrate social psychology and economics literature, highlighting how hierarchical relationships influence inter-group trust and contribute to the perpetuation of social hierarchies. The paper provides empirical evidence and discusses implications for understanding trust in fragmented and hierarchical societies.

Lire l'article