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Date : Mardi | 2026-11-10 à 12h
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Sandy Suardi  (University of Wollongong)

This paper examines how regional epidemic risk during China’s COVID-19 Zero-COVID
period affected financial analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy and related behaviors. Using
analyst- and firm-level forecasts for A-share-listed firms from 2020–2021, we show that higher
local epidemic risk significantly reduces forecast accuracy at both annual and quarterly
horizons. Two mechanisms drive this decline. First, strict lockdowns and travel restrictions
impede analysts’ ability to conduct on-site due diligence, with the adverse effects more
pronounced for distant and out-of-province analysts. Second, heightened uncertainty and
operational disruptions amplify information asymmetry, especially for non-SOEs, small firms,
firms with greater earnings management, and firms audited by non-Big 4 auditors. Epidemic
risk also reshapes analyst practices: it reduces coverage, increases forecast dispersion, raises
the likelihood of forecast revisions, and encourages team collaboration as analysts attempt to
mitigate informational frictions. Overall, the findings provide large-scale evidence that
epidemic-induced disruptions fundamentally weakened analysts’ information sets and
forecasting precision. The results highlight the vulnerability of capital-market information
production to external shocks and underscore the importance of robust information channels
when face-to-face information gathering becomes constrained.