Mardi | 2015-03-24 Sully 5, 16h-17h20 Christophe HURLIN – Sébastien LAURENT – Rogier QUAEDVLIEG – Stephan SMEEKES We propose a widely applicable bootstrap based test of the null hypothesis of equality of two fi rms’ Risk Measures (RMs) at a single point in time. The test can be applied to any market-based measure. In an iterative procedure, we can identify a complete grouped ranking of the RMs, with particular application to fi nding buckets of fi rms of equal systemic […]

Mercredi | 2015-03-18 salle B103, 12h-14h Christian Rodrigue TAGNE Résumé :L’objectif de ce papier est d’évaluer ex post l’impact de la réforme des retraites de 1993 dans le secteur privé en France. La mesure d’intérêt de la réforme ici est l’augmentation de la durée d’assurance requise pour obtenir une pension à taux plein. L’utilisation de l’Echantillon Interrégime des Retraités (EIR 2008) nous permet de rendre compte empiriquement de l’écart moyen d’équivalent patrimonial des droits à la retraites (EPDR) induit par […]

Mardi | 2015-03-17 Sully 5 – 16h-17h20 Grégory LEVIEUGE – Yannick LUCOTTE – Sébastien RINGUEDE This article investigates the relationship between central bank credibility and the volatility of the key monetary policy instrument. Two main contributions are brought forward. First, we propose a time-varying measure of central bank credibility based on the gap between inflation expectations and the official inflation target. While this new index addresses the main limitations of the existing indicators, it also appears more suited to assess […]

Mardi | 2015-03-10 Sully 5 – 16h-17h20 Frédéric VINAS – Pierre PESSAROSSI A key issue in the aftermath of the 2007-09?s global recession is to design a resilient financial system, with this concern in mind we analyse how banks’ maturity mismatch impacts the transmission of liquidity shock to the real economy. Using an extensive loan-level database in France over 2007-2009 and controlling for demand effects, we first show the causality of the maturity of bank?s liability on the maturity of […]

Mercredi | 2015-03-04 salle B103, 12h-14h Fadi KHALIL L’article sera bientôt disponible.

Mardi | 2015-02-17 Sully 5, 16h30-18h Jean-Charles BRICONGNE – Irène GRIALOU  » Does the profile of chief economists in charge of forecasting in public and private institutions matter for the quality of their forecasting? Different arguments may be invoked in favor or against this argument: chief economists do not always influence directly forecasting, and it may be rather due to the quality of the staff, but on the other hand, the staff may be chosen, reorganized and influenced by the […]

Mercredi | 2015-02-11 salle B103, 12h-14h Leonardo Eric CALCAGNO The aim of this paper is to lay the foundations of a prospective analysis that will draw perspectives on Argentina’s Pay-As-You-Go pension system. After a brief description of the country’s pension system, this paper develops a dynamic microsimulation model and calibrates it with a household-level quarterly survey data, the EPH. The calibration is done both on a micro level (by modelling individual transition probabilities between labour-market states) and on a macro […]

Mardi | 2015-02-10 Sully 5, 16h-17h20 Vicard VINCENT This paper provides direct evidence of profit shifting to low tax jurisdictions by multinational companies through transfer prices. Using detailed firm level export and import data by destination and product for France, I show that the price wedge between arm’s length trade and related party trade varies systematically with the differential in corporate tax rate between France and the partner country. Profit shifting through transfer prices is estimated to have reduced the […]

Mercredi | 2015-02-04 salle B103, 12h-14h Nabila BOUKEF JLASSI Le contrôle des capitaux internationaux représente une des solutions réglementaires permettant de pallier au risque d’instabilité financière. Cela est d’autant plus important que les mouvements de capitaux internationaux continuent à affluer vers les pays en développement, augmentant ainsi les risques nés d’une telle politique de libéralisation financière externe. Le présent papier se propose d’étudier l’efficacité du contrôle des capitaux à assurer la stabilité financière dans les pays en développement.

Mardi | 2015-02-03 Sully 5, 16h-17h20 Christophe LAVIALLE Le papier revient sur le débat autour du concept de chômage involontaire, et de son acceptabilité au sein de la science économique. Il montre que ce débat, tel qu’il a été recensé par De Vroey, et qui oppose fondamentalement Keynes et Lucas, renvoie à une série de questions épistémologiques sur le fonctionnement du langage de la science économique, et sa capacité à véhiculer de la connaissance. Ces questions relèvent, en amont de […]