Séminaires de recherche


Central Bank Conservatism and financial (in)stability.

Mercredi | 2015-10-07
B103 à 12h


This article investigates the relationship between central bank conservatism (CBC) and financial instability. Using a new empirical measure of CBC and the well-known banking crises data base of Laeven and Valencia, we adopt a twostep approach. First, we assess whether monetary policy preferences has impacted financial imbalances. We find that a higher degree of conservatism leads to more imbalances. Second, by means of Tobit estimations, we formally prove the existence of a negative effect of CBC on the severity of banking crisis. Thus, the higher the central bank is conservative, the higher the economy is impacted by financial shocks.

Timing and duration of inflation targeting regimes

Mardi | 2015-10-06
Sully5; 16h-17h20


Central banks in G7 countries shifted to unconventional policy measures in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis, when faced with economic slack, financial instability and fiscal trouble. This shift ended a spell of rules-based time consistent monetary policy that started in the mid-1980s. I argue that substantial economic, political and financial risks put pressures on the continued support for a monetary regime. Central banks may be forced to adopt policies with no option to reset those options later on. I demonstrate with duration models – on a sample of industrialized and emerging economies from 1970 to 2012 – that the policy switch to inflation targeting happened after episodes with high inflation and public debt, reflecting broad support for stability oriented monetary (and fiscal) policy. More generally, changes in monetary regimes occur after a crisis. High inflation makes central banks pursue active monetary policies, while they forsake those same policies in the wake of fiscal or financial crises.

Le Pacte de Stabilité en Vigueur dans la Zone UEMOA Entrave-t-il le Rôle Contra-cyclique des Politiques Macroéconomiques?

Mercredi | 2015-09-30
B103 à 12h

Ahmed Al Mahdi SAGNA

Ce chapitre cherche à évaluer l’influence des politiques macroéconomiques, particulièrement les politiques budgétaires sur l’activité économique des Etats membres de l’UMOA. Ce faisant, on suppose une non linéarité des effets de la politique budgétaire sur l’activité économiqueen fonction de l’évolution du niveau de la dette publique et du niveau de déficit public. Compte tenu du délai nécessaire pour opérer des modifications dans l’orientation de la politique budgétaire, nous estimons que les modèles vectoriels auto-régressif à transmission lisse (LSTVAR 1) sont plus appropriés à notre problématique.

Recruteurs sous tensions. Discrimination et diversité au prisme de registres argumentaires enchevêtrés

Mardi | 2015-09-29
sully 5

David MELO – Régis Cortéséro – sylvain KERBOURC’H – Alexandra POLI

Alors que la plupart des travaux sur les pratiques discriminatoires dans le recrutement identifient celles-ci à une logique d’action unique, cet article tente, à partir de 57 entretiens réalisés avec des recruteurs issus de secteurs diversifiés, de proposer un cadre d’analyse alternatif. Les exigences d’équité qui pèsent sur le recrutement sont prises au sérieux et permettent de décrire une expérience du recrutement aux prises avec des exigences contradictoires, certaines relevant de l’efficience économique, d’autres de la justice sociale. Les recruteurs doivent arbitrer entre ces exigences, et le caractère discriminatoire ou non discriminatoire du recrutement résulte de cet arbitrage et des contraintes sociales et organisationnelles qui en affectent le cours.

Is Government Debt a Vamp? 
Public Finance in a Transylvanian Growth Model

Mardi | 2015-09-22
Sully 5 de 16h à 17h20

Patrick VILLIEU – Maxime MENUET

The vampire metaphor has been used in numerous papers describing biological interactions between two populations. Such a metaphor translates well to a standard endogenous growth model with public debt. Public debt can be assimilated to a Vamp, whose blood-sucking behavior corresponds to the harmful effect of the debt burden on productive public expenditures. However, the complete destruction of public debt in the long-run is shown to be socially undesirable, because this would imply too much distortionary taxation, with damaging effects on the balanced growth path. By identifying ecological or biological processes with usual national account relationships, this analysis is one step further in the integration of macroeconomics and environmental economics.

Success after Failure : The Recovery Margin of Trade in U.S. Imports

Mardi | 2015-07-08
Sully 5, 11h15-12h15


The recovery of failed trading relationships (identified as unique exporter-inporter-HS6 pairings) after a period of dormancy is puzzling because of evidence in the trade literature about hysteresis in trade and the existence of significant sunk costs associated with both establishing new trade relationships (NT) and recovering dormant trading relationships (RT). The quality of trade recovery is a very important question as there is evidence in the literature that the quality of the traded goods and trading relationships impact a country’s export performance and its overall growth trajectory. We provide new evidence that the characteristics of export gaps impact the quality of export recovery using highly disaggregated, 6-digit HS level bilateral data on exports to the US. We find some support for the frontier based theory of competition and innovation -that quality upgrading upon trade recovery occurs in industries that are closer to the technology frontier but not in those that are more distant. However, for any given distance to the technology frontier, the duration of trade gaps adversely impacts quality upgrading.

Matching dynamics and optima in a multi-agents labor market setting

Mardi | 2015-06-30
Sully 5, 10h30-12h

Christelle GARROUSTE – Cyrille PIATECKI – Yvan STROPPA

One of the greatest difficulties meet on the labor market is that it ensures that all the people who want to work can find a job. But it is not the only one. A second difficulty consists to find a social arrangement which approaches as much as possible the social optimum without forgetting that the optimum can be reached with the rejection of certain candidacies.It seems impossible to solve a social optimum problem of the size of the french labor market because this one is furthermore constituted of 26 million job-seekers and that no computer is capable of managing the matching problem which, surprisingly is not of an excessive complexity – it is of order n3 -, but which quickly collides with the computational capacity of machines, however powerful they may be. It’s the reason why it is essential to study restricted size markets, that is markets of less than 10000 job-seekers, to observe how practical solutions which can be organized as, for example, a geographical progressive balkanization either geographic or by skill level,leads to a departure from the Pareto optimum.In this context, this paper suggests to compare the level of efficiency of a decentralized actually practicable solution with the optimum which would be if only it was possible to collect all necessary information to implement and compute it.

Econometric Methods and Problems in New Classical Macroeconomics

Mardi | 2015-06-23
Sully 5, 16h-17h20

Francesco SERGI

The purpose of this contribution to epistemology and history of recent macroeconomics is to construct a clear understanding about econometric methods and problems in New Classical macroeconomics. Most historical work focused on theoretical or policy implication aspects of this research program, set in motion by Robert Lucas in the early seventies. To the opposite, the empirical and econometric works of New Classical macroeconomics had received little attention.We focus especially on the contributions gathered in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, edited in 1981 by Lucas and Thomas Sargent. The main claim of our article is that the publishing of this book must be regarded as a turn in macroeconometric modeling, closely related to Lucas’s conception of models.The analysis of the New Classical macroeconometrics through the Lucas methodology allow us to propose an original historical account of the methods presented in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, but also of the problems that flawed this approach.

Assessing the role of transmission channels in sovereign risk: a spatial econometrics approach

Mercredi | 2015-06-17
B103 à 12h


The recent financial crisis has shed light on how fast sovereign risk can spread from one economy to another as well as on the dramatic role macroeconomic and financial transmission channels could play for the worldwide economic stability. In the case of Europe for instance, the sovereign debt-related turmoil in Greece was rapidly transmitted to other euro-area countries as materialized by the sharp increase in bond yields spread of the whole area. Such event has led to a growing literature in macroeconomics and financial econometrics interested in better understanding and modelling the phenomenon of  » contagion » . We contribute to this strand of literature by identifying the role of economic, financial, commercial and institutional linkages in the transmission of sovereign risk. Mainly, we study the dynamics of 20 OECD countries bond yield spreads with respect to United States over the period 2008-2012, using spatial dynamic panel data model. This framework allows us to account for interdependences in modelling bond spreads as well as selecting the channel that best explains their dynamic. We find that all considered channels are relevant to capture the diffusion of sovereign risk. However our selection strategy based on information criteria shows that the institutional channel is the most relevant.