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Forecasting Inflation Expectations with Adaptive Learning

Date : Jeudi | 2025-05-15 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Cyril DELL'EVA (Université de Rouen / LERN)

Inflation expectations in the QPM are approximated with the BER Survey of Inflation Expectations. These are forecasted by using an exogenous AR(1) process, constrained to converge to the target at the two year horizon. The AR(1) process imposes strong judgment on the forecasting of inflation and it is unlikely to forecast expectations correctly, outside a small short run window. We substitute the AR(1) process with an adaptive learning process, driven by data, to forecast BER expectations. We show that an adaptive learning process is a realistic approximation of the inflation expectations process and leads to a more accurate inflation forecast.

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Carbon curse: As you extract, so you will burn

Date : Jeudi | 2025-04-24 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Adrien DESROZIERS (LÉO, Université d'Orléans)

The “Carbon Curse” theory suggests that fossil fuel richness leads countries to have more carbon-intensive development trajectories than they would otherwise. Using causal inference for cross-country panel data spanning 1950–2018, we globally estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on carbon emissions. Our findings show that the effect is sizable and persistent. Our results show a substantial and persistent impact: countries that experience giant oil and gas discoveries emit approximately 40% more CO₂ post-discovery compared to their resource-poor counterparts. This effect is particularly pronounced in developing economies and emerges immediately after the first discovery, reinforcing the notion that fossil fuel wealth induces long-term path dependencies. These findings highlight the significant barriers that fossil fuel-rich nations face in aligning with decarbonization goals, posing substantial challenges for meeting the Paris Agreement targets. By exploiting the randomness of the timing of discoveries, we provide the first plausibly causal evidence in support of the “Carbon Curse”.

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Trusting up: How Social Hierarchies shape Social Trust

Date : Jeudi | 2025-04-30 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Catherine BROS (LÉO, Université de Tours)

This paper examines the impact of social hierarchy on trust dynamics within the Indian caste system, building on social identity theory. We find that higher castes enjoy a trust surplus from lower castes, which is only partially reduced when caste identity is emphasized. This asymmetrical trust premium is linked to the higher status of upper castes and is supported by narratives about caste success and failure. Our findings integrate social psychology and economics literature, highlighting how hierarchical relationships influence inter-group trust and contribute to the perpetuation of social hierarchies. The paper provides empirical evidence and discusses implications for understanding trust in fragmented and hierarchical societies.

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Droughts and Agricultural Land Concentration in France

Date : Jeudi | 2025-03-27 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Raja CHAKIR (University of Paris-Saclay

This paper investigates the impact of recurrent droughts on farm size and land concentration in France over both the short and long run. While much of the existing literature on climate shocks and landholding patterns focuses on developing countries—where extreme weather often drives cropland expansion as an adaptive response—evidence from developed economies remains limited. Using two detailed panel datasets—an annual panel from 2015 to 2022 and a decadal panel from 1970 to 2020—covering 716 small agricultural regions and econometric panel models, we analyze structural shifts in landholding patterns. We examine multiple land concentration metrics, including average and median farm size, the Gini index, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). To measure drought exposure, we employ both absolute (Soil Wetness Index, SWI) and relative (z-score) measures of soil moisture, capturing variation in drought frequency and intensity over different time horizons (one to ten years). Our findings indicate that an additional month of severe drought increases average and median farm size in both the short and long run. Unlike studies in developing contexts, where droughts often lead to land expansion, we find that in France, droughts accelerate farm concentration. We conduct additional analyses to explore the mechanisms driving our results and find that droughts accelerate land concentration by lowering land prices, enabling larger farms to expand, while simultaneously forcing smaller farmers to exit the sector, reducing the overall number of farmers, and contributing to a decline in total agricultural land. These findings underscore the structural consequences of climatic shocks in developed economies and provide crucial insights for designing climate-resilient agricultural policies to mitigate land inequality and excessive farm consolidation.

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Analyse économique des choix d’infiltrations des ménages agricoles dans les espaces protégées : cas des Forêts Classées en Côte d’Ivoire

Date : Jeudi | 2025-03-13 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Ariane AMIN (Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny et Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire)

Dans la lutte contre la déforestation et la dégradation de la biodiversité, l’établissement d’aires protégées demeurent globalement une stratégie dominante en termes de politique publique. La progression de la déforestation au sein même de ces espaces protégées dans certains pays malgré leurs statuts, se révèle être une problématique importante pour les Etats qui établissent ces aires de protection de la biodiversité. En effet, la persistance de la déforestation questionne l’efficacité de la mise en œuvre des politiques environnementales de conservation au sein des Etats concernés. En Côte d’Ivoire, où 50% des forêts classées, qui ont un statut juridique de protection, sont occupées par des plantations agricoles, il existe peu de références dans la littérature qui permettent une compréhension globale des infiltrations dans ces aires de conservation en vue d’informer les politiques. Ce travail de recherche vise à combler ce gap en examinant les décisions d’infiltrations des ménages agricoles dans les forêts classées en tant que domaine public protégé en Côte d’Ivoire. Ce papier développe un modèle de choix binaire de propension à l’infiltration d’un ménage agricole et le teste empiriquement sur la base d’une enquête de 1314 ménages autour de différentes forêts classées dans les zones Est, Ouest, Sud-Ouest et Centre Ouest de la Côte d’Ivoire. Les résultats montrent que la perception de droits de propriété informel par les ménages agricoles autochtones est un facteur déterminant dans l’explication des infiltrations dans les forêts classées en Côte d’Ivoire. Nos résultats confirment également l’effet des faibles moyens de contrôle dans les forêts classées, de l’expérience des pairs et des signaux de prix des cultures de rente dans la dégradation des forêts classées en Côte d’Ivoire.

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Legislation, Regulation and Litigation: Demand for U.S. Legal Services in Historical Perspective”

Date : Jeudi | 2025-03-06 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Ariell RESHEF (Univ. Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

The employment share of legal services in the U.S. more than doubled during 1970--1990, in stark contrast to stability during 1850--1970 and after 1990. The relative wage of lawyers and law firm partners also doubled between 1970 and 1990. We argue that this demand shift was driven by important legislative and regulatory events, starting in the mid-1960s and lasting throughout the 1980s. These changes increased the scope of the law and uncertainty over legal outcomes. Consistent with this, we find that employment and compensation of lawyers are tightly correlated with federal regulation, fee-shifting statues and civil litigation, over a period of 100 years. These findings are supported by state-level and individual-level analysis. Other factors, e.g., changes in lawyers' quality, industrial composition and technology are not important determinants of the demand shift. We calculate that 40% of payments to legal services in 1990 are in excess of what they would have been had their relative income remained at 1970 levels. This represents an excess cost of 75 billion dollars in 2024 alone.

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Evaluating the causal impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Global Value Chain trade: a quasi-experimental approach

Date : Jeudi | 2025-02-13 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Sylvia NENCI (University of Roma III)

This work investigates the impact of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) on Global Value Chain (GVC) trade using a quasi-experimental approach to address non-linearities and endogeneity. Analyzing a panel dataset of NTMs and trade in value-added across 172 countries, with a focus on agriculture, the research finds that NTMs affect GVC trade non-linearly. Most NTMs generally harm agricultural trade, particularly at both low and high levels of intensity, such as technical barriers and sanitary measures. Other NTMs, however, have a positive impact at low intensity, which becomes negative as intensity increases. The study underscores the importance of accounting for self-selection and non-linearities, as well as considering the heterogeneity and intensity of NTMs to refine estimates of their effects. Additionally, it highlights the indirect trade "chain effect" of NTMs, showing that trade restrictions not only impact partner countries but also affect the imposing country’s economy through value chain linkages.

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Within-group inequality and caste-based crimes in India

Date : Jeudi | 2025-01-30 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Sarmistha PAL (University of Surrey)

We examine how within-group inequality, by influencing the group bias of state institutions such as the police and the judiciary, affects the cost-benefit calculus of individuals engaging in identity-assertive behaviour, that results in police complaints regarding hate crimes. We develop a two-stage contest model of between-group conflict, where the relative influence over state institutions exerted by a group, determined by an initial contest, affects subsequent hierarchy-establishing interaction between individuals belonging to opposing groups. Applying this model to caste conflict in India, we find that greater inequality among upper caste and OBC Hindus might reduce the registered rate of crimes against SCs committed by such individuals, as well as the conviction rate for these crimes. Conversely, greater inequality among SCs increases both rates. Using state-level annual crime and household consumption data from India over the period 2005-2021, we find robust empirical support for these hypotheses. Between-group inequality does not appear to matter for either the rate of crimes against SCs or the conviction rate.

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