Année : 2013

Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration (Article non disponible)

Mardi | 2013-02-12 B103 Ingrid DALLIMANN – Katrin MILLOCK We match data from the Indian census of 1991 and 2001 with climate data to test the hypothesis of climate variability as a push factor for internal migration. The main contribution of the analysis is to introduce relevant meteorological indicators of climate variability, based on the standardized precipitation index. Gravity-type estimations based on a utility maximization approach cannot reject the null hypothesis that the frequency of drought acts as a push […]

When more does not necessarily mean better: Health-related illfare comparisons with non-monotone welfare relationships

Mardi | 2013-02-05 B103 Mauricio APABLAZA – Florent BRESSON – Gaston YALONETZKY Most welfare studies are based on the assumption that wellbeing is monotonically related to the variables used for the analysis. While this assumption can be regarded as reasonable for many dimensions of wellbeing like income, education, or empowerment, there are some cases where it is definitively not relevant, in particular with respect to health. For instance, health status is often proxied using the Body Mass Index (BMI). Low […]

Predictive Regression and Robust Hypothesis Testing: Predictability Hidden by Anomalous Observations

Mardi | 2013-01-29 B103 Lorenzo CAMPONOVO – Olivier SCAILLET – Fabio TROJANI Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and applicable to multi-predictor settings, when the data may only approximately follow a predictive regression model. The Monte Carlo evidence demonstrates large improvements of our approach, while the empirical analysis […]

Waterloo: a Godsend for French Public Finances?

Mardi | 2013-01-22 B103 Kim OOSTERLINCK – L. URECHE-RANGAU – Jacques-Marie VASLIN – libre Following Waterloo managing French public finances represented a daunting task. Defeated France had lost a substantial part of its population and of its territory. Part of the country was occupied and France was to pay huge amounts as reparations to the victors. Furthermore France’s reputation had been tarnished by the partial default on its debts in 1797. Despite all these elements, in the ten years between […]

Spatial Autoregressive Spillovers vs Unobserved Common Factors Models. A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion

Mardi | 2013-01-16 B103 Cem ERTUR – Antonio MUSOLESI This paper provides an econometric examination of geographic R&D spillovers among countries by focusing on the issue of cross-sectional dependence. By applying several unit root tests, we show that when the number of lags of the autoregressive component of augmented DickeyFuller test-type speciffications or the number of common factors is estimated in a model selection framework, the variables (total factor productivity and the R&D capital stocks) appear to be stationary. Then, […]

La bulle immobilière et les conditions du crédit

Mercredi | 2013-01-09 A105 Asma BEN SAAD-LAKHAL La politique macroprudentielle a suscité l’intérêt des économistes et des responsables depuis la dernière crise. Assurer une politique microprudentielle n’est pas suffisant pour garantir la stabilité financière. Il est nécessaire d’agir via des outils autres que ceux de la politique monétaire pour garder la stabilité économique et limiter le risque systémique.Après la crise des ‘suprimes’, nombreux travaux ont étudié le secteur immobilier américain en tentant d’expliquer les raisons de son effondrement et ses […]