How do epidemics affect trade costs? Evidence from Ebola in West Africa

Mercredi | 2022-03-10
Salle des thèses – 12h30

Yrkamba Bienvenu AMAKOUE – Isabelle RABAUD

The increased occurrence of natural disaster and uncertainty linked to epidemics has generated disruption of trade. Our work is included in this field of study. In this paper, we investigate, more precisely, the effect of trade restrictions issued against Ebola-infected countries by their trading partners over the period 2014-2016. We measured the effect of these restrictions on trade between Ebola-infected countries and their trading partners. We used monthly panel data over the period January 2011 to December 2018 to perform our estimations based on the gravity model of international trade. Our results showed that the restrictions implemented against Ebola-infected countries by some of their trading partners during the period of the epidemic led to an average decline in exports from the infected countries by around 50%. The detailed results show a much stronger negative effect of total bans on trade than partial bans. This effect of total bans is magnified for export of fresh products (72%) compared to durable products (67%). Regarding imports from trading partners, the results show no negative effect of the restrictions. Our results are robust to PPML estimation.