» Mitigating market uncertainty: predictive and non-predictive strategies »

Mardi | 2020-03-03
Salle des thèses 16h-17h20

Graciela KUECHLE

Entrepreneurs cope with uncertainty in different ways, from predictive approaches, based on the statistical assessment of contingencies, to non-predictive approaches based on judgment and oriented towards action. In this paper we develop a simple mathematical framework of the process by which entrepreneurs collect information about customers’ preferences under predictive and non-predictive strategies to assess the conditions under which they reduce uncertainty. Whereas predictive approaches offer a relatively economic way of reaching a large and representative base, non-predictive approaches require higher effort but may deliver a more effective reduction in uncertainty. An entrepreneur who manages to establish a fruitful exchange, may obtain a more reliable assessment if, by revealing information about the product, she facilitates the elicitation of preferences. These positive effects are constrained by the nature of the product and the entrepre