This paper investigates how international trade in critical minerals shapes the global energy transition. It distinguishes between unprocessed (ores and concentrates) and processed (metals, oxides, alloys, and refined products) trade flows, as well as between exports and imports, in order to capture the different channels through which minerals contribute to clean energy deployment. The analysis focuses on eleven critical minerals used intensively in solar and wind technologies, which represent the most mineral-dependent renewable energy systems. Using a panel dataset of 176 countries over the period 1995–2023, the study examines the relationship between mineral trade and the energy transition, proxied by renewable electricity output (REO), while controlling for key structural determinants including fossil fuel consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI), research and development (R&D), and industrial activity. Technology-specific outcomes are further explored by analyzing solar and wind electricity shares.

To address potential endogeneity between trade flows and energy transition performance, the empirical strategy relies on fixed effects estimations complemented by two-stage least squares (2SLS) as a robustness check. The results show that the impact of critical mineral trade is highly heterogeneous and depends both on the stage of processing and the level of economic development. At the global level, unprocessed mineral exports are negatively and significantly associated with REO, suggesting that reliance on raw material exports may hinder domestic renewable diversification. On the import side, a contrasting pattern emerges: unprocessed mineral imports are positively associated with REO, while processed imports exhibit a negative relationship.

A clear development divide emerges from the heterogeneity analysis. In developed economies, mineral trade—particularly in processed forms—is positively associated with renewable electricity share, reflecting stronger technological capabilities and industrial integration. In contrast, these effects weaken or reverse in developing countries. Processed mineral imports exhibit a negative and significant impact in developing economies. Unprocessed exports are also negatively associated with REO in these countries, pointing to persistent patterns of extractive specialization and limited value addition.

Technology-specific results reinforce this divergence. For solar energy, processed mineral exports are positively associated with deployment in developed countries but become insignificant in developing economies, while processed imports show negative effects. For wind energy, interaction effects are consistently negative across all trade variables, indicating that both imports and exports—regardless of processing stage—are associated with weaker deployment outcomes in developing countries.