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When Managers Speak, Markets Listen: Price Discovery during Analyst/Investor Days

Date : Jeudi | 2026-11-12 à 12h30
Lieu : Salle des thèses

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Olga Kolokolova (Lancaster University)

We study how markets incorporate information released during Analyst/Investor Days, multi-hour corporate disclosure events comprising managerial presentations and a Q&A session. Aligning sentence-timestamped transcripts with tick-level trades and quotes for 2,490 U.S. events from 2014 to 2025, we show that 80% of the event-window return is incorporated before the Q&A begins. Price adjustment occurs through both discrete jumps and gradual drift bursts. Forward-looking and future-oriented statements are associated with larger absolute returns, while jump probabilities vary systematically with disclosure content, increasing after negative-tone speech and decreasing after positive-tone speech. CEO speech is associated with larger returns and higher jump probabilities, while drift bursts show little relation to language and are strongly associated with order flow in the preceding minutes. During presentations, the same order flow is followed by larger price moves and stronger drift bursts.