Minyar KHAYAT

This paper analyzes the e!ectiveness of the Basel Convention in reducing global trade in plastic waste. Our empirical approach employs a structural gravity model estimated using Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and bilateral trade data covering the period 1995-2024. We control for the China National Sword policy to isolate the e!ect of the Basel Convention. Our findings indicate that plastic waste trade declines of about 72 percent when both trading partners have ratified the Basel Convention. These results remain consistent when considering alternative trade measures, excluding China, using various sets of fixed e!ects, and implementing di!erent dynamic specifications. Furthermore, we observe that the e!ects of the Basel Convention are largely similar across OECD and Non-OECD trade groups. The interaction terms linking Basel Convention ratification to Non-OECD imports from OECD countries lose their statistical significance once multilateral resistance terms and country-pair fixed e!ects are included. This suggests that the di!erential e!ects highlighted in simpler specifications are not substantiated.